Is War Over - A Paradox Explained

Violence and war. The senseless brutality of IS continues, the Russians invade Ukraine, and Palestinian and Israeli continue to fight. Does that make you gloomy? Well, Don't be. Because if you look at the numbers war seems more more outdated, while that the world's population has never been higher. It seems that we are living in the most peaceful period of all human history.

How is it possible?  

In September 2014, 4 conflicts were taking place in the world, causing the death of about 10,000 people since January 2013. 9 conflicts made more than 1,000 victims and 13 did more than 100 since January 2013. Nothing really peaceful but consider this: of all the raging conflicts, none of them was an active war between countries They are either civil wars, or local conflicts. Although the civil wars are terrible and cause a lot of suffering, their impact is often much less than a war between nations or empires. When two nations go to war, they can mobilize much larger forces, have access to all State resources and logistics as well as almost the entire population. 

Why did we go from wars between nation states to civil wars?

 Lots to do with colonialism and the cold war. When the cold war ended, an important factor in armed conflict also disappeared. But the rupture of communist dictatorial regimes revealed new tensions or old, and brought new conflicts in the now liberated states which resulted in a civil war. What is important, in 1945, almost all of Africa, a lot of asia and a little bit of Latin America were under colonial rule. In 1990, everything except a few islands was independent.

Could we not say that what today's multinationals subject the Third World is equivalent to colonialism?

 Let's look at the Congo, established in 1885 as a colony by the King of the Belgians. An area 80 times that of Belgium. Violence against Congolese natives and the ruthless system economic exploitation killed almost half of the population from 1908. Nearly 10 million Congolese were executed or starved to death. Millions have been maimed and traumatized. Economic exploitation of the Congo remained the priority and forced labor has not stopped completely until the end of the Belgian regime, in 1960, which is not so far in the past.

So no. Colonialism was worse than today's "predatory capitalism" and it ended over two generations ago. Most conflicts faced to date are in places that, 60 years ago, were under foreign control. But things are improving. Until 1989, victory on one side in a civil war was common, while today victories are more rare. Moreover, negotiated agreements increased by 10% almost 40%. What about the rest of the world?

Why is it the nation states have stopped attacking? 

There are 4 major reasons: A. Democratization. The incessant development from autocracy to democracy. Democracies rarely wage war against each other. Of all the wars between states fought since 1900, only a minority have been fought between democracies. Of them, globalization. War is not so effective in reaching economic goals than in the past. Today it is mostly cheaper to buy resources from the global market than forcibly ripping them off. People of other nations have greater value alive than dead. Which, is a new concept for most. Three. War is so 20th century. Until the First War, fighting was seen as an inevitable part of the human experience, and as an essential tool useful for achieve goals when diplomacy hits a wall. Today we have rules that declare illegal aggression and which stipulate that the armed forces are only justified in self-defense, or with the authority of the UN Security Council. These rules are still broken, but it's more difficult now without causing oppositions and discontent. We also have a criminal court international court for war crimes in The Hague, very recent innovation. Four. Borders are mostly fixed now Following the Second War, territorial wars usually stopped, when several countries have pledged to respect international borders and respect for mutual autonomy.

But is this an anomaly, or are we on the path to unending peace?

 In truth, we know nothing. We need a meaningful example to wipe out the historic average, one or two great wars each century. There hasn't been enough time since World War II to scratch the possibility that the war will not go away. If there is no great war in the next 75 years, we can be very confident that humanity is changing. You see, the war could be over. Yes, there are terrible conflicts taking place in the world, but for the most part, it gets better and we can achieve success in making the world a better place campaigning for peace and democracy. Subtitles made by the community

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